11am Sandy Update

11am Sandy Update

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

…SANDY FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD SOON…
…EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND COASTAL
HURRICANE WINDS PLUS HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…37.5N 71.5W
ABOUT 205 MI…330 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 260 MI…415 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH…150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…943 MB…27.85 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

IN ADDITION…HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.
THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT…
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY…DELAWARE BAY…AND THE COASTS
OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA…NEW JERSEY…THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA…LONG ISLAND…CONNECTICUT…AND RHODE ISLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO
MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS…THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY…AND
SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA…THE NORTHERN
ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH…30 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED SOON…FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK… THE CENTER OF
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH…150
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A
FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
HOWEVER…THIS TRANSITION WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM…AND…IN FACT…A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PROCESS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING
INLAND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES…280 KM…
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 485 MILES…780 KM. SUSTAINED WINDS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING FROM LONG ISLAND SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY…DELAWARE…AND EASTERN VIRGINIA…AND
EXTEND AS FAR INLAND AS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
DELAWARE BAY. A WEATHERFLOW REPORT INDICATES A SUSTAINED WIND OF 53
MPH…85 KM/H…WITH A GUST TO 63 MPH…102 KM/H…HAS RECENTLY
OCCURRED ON LONG ISLAND AT EATONS NECK NEW YORK.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 943 MB…27.85 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS…OR GALE-FORCE WINDS…ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FROM NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO LONG ISLAND. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST…NEW YORK CITY…AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES…
INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND…BY THIS EVENING. WINDS
AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE…

NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS…4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY…2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY…1 TO 3 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND…RARITAN BAY…AND NEW YORK HARBOR…6 TO 11 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER…4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY…3 TO 6 FT
CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY…2 TO 4 FT
MA/NH BORDER TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER…1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY…ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION…
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE…THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL…RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES…INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER…WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES
OF SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE
BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MARYLAND.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

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