5pm Sandy Update

5pm Sandy Update

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

…HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND…
…SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IS ALSO EXPECTED…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…30.2N 75.2W
ABOUT 335 MI…540 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 345 MI…555 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…961 MB…28.38 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

IN ADDITION…HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. HIGH WIND WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SEE STATEMENTS
FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH…20 KM/H…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS
FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT…FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF SANDY
WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND…AND APPROACH THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES LATE MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES…165 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520
MILES…835 KM. NOAA BUOY 41013…LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES…
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH…76 KM/H…AND A WIND GUST OF 58 MPH…
94 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB…28.38 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN THE CAROLINAS WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS…AND SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REACH LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS TO NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES…INCLUDING
LONG ISLAND…BY LATE MONDAY.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

FL EAST COAST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL…1 TO 2 FT
NC SOUTH OF SURF CITY…1 TO 3 FT
NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBERMARLE SNDS…3 TO 5 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY…2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY…1 TO 2 FT
OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER…4 TO 8 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND…RARITAN BAY…AND DELAWARE BAY…4 TO 8 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY…ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION…
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE…THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL…RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES…INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO NEW
ENGLAND.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BY SUNDAY.

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