11pm Sandy Update

11pm Sandy Update

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

…SANDY CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES…
…STRONG WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…30.9N 74.3W
ABOUT 360 MI…580 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 305 MI…490 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…960 MB…28.35 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION…HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…ALONG WITH
OTHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SEE STATEMENTS FROM
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH…22 KM/H…AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT…FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF
SANDY WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND…AND APPROACH THE COAST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS…SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND POWERFUL
CYCLONE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES…165 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520
MILES…835 KM. NOAA BUOY 41036…LOCATED IN ONSLOW BAY NEAR THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST…RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
45 MPH…73 KM/H…AND A WIND GUST OF 60 MPH…97 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS IS 960 MB…28.35 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA…AND THESE
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY AND REACH
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS TO
NEAR HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES…
INCLUDING LONG ISLAND…BY LATE MONDAY.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

NC SOUTH OF SURF CITY…1 TO 3 FT
NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBERMARLE SNDS…3 TO 5 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY…2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY…1 TO 2 FT
OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER…4 TO 8 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND…RARITAN BAY…AND DELAWARE BAY…4 TO 8 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY…ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION…
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE…THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL…RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES…INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO NEW
ENGLAND.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY.

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