11am Sandy Update

11am Sandy Update

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

…SANDY SLOWLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA…
…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY NEAR THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…29.0N 76.0W
ABOUT 190 MI…310 KM NNE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 355 MI…570 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…958 MB…28.29 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION…GALE…STORM AND HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST. OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS SANDY HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST…
HOWEVER…A LONGER-TERM MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH…15
KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY…AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS
FORECAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF SANDY
WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS
MORNING AND WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES…165 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 450
MILES…725 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB…28.29 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN GREAT ABACO AND
GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA IN THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING…AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

FL EAST COAST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL…1 TO 2 FT
NC SOUTH OF SURF CITY…1 TO 3 FT
NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBERMARLE SNDS…3 TO 5 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY…2 TO 4 FT
UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY…1 TO 2 FT
OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER…4 TO 8 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND…RARITAN BAY…AND DELAWARE BAY…4 TO 8 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY…ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION…
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE…THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL…RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES…INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BY SUNDAY.

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